Posted by Eric Huang on October 29, 2014
(I wanted to say the “Universe’s First” but our Legal, Marketing, Finance, IT and Shipping and Cafeteria people all said I can’t prove it so I can only claim “Industry’s First”.)
Why should you Care? Isn’t the world Wireless?
USB 3.1 will be the leading/dominant wired interface in the world of tomorrow.
You’ll have WiFi and Faster WiFi. And Faster 5G Modems and 11.5 G modems..
You’ll have Wired. It will be USB.
What are the trends leading?
For USB 3.1 – Creation of Content – 8K video and Big MP pictures.
– Creation of 24K and soon 8K videos, even with compression will create giant file sizes. Even Wireless Networks will feel the strain. Storing and backing up all of this will take lots of storage capacity.
The best example that exists today is the GoPro Hero4+ Silver records 4k video at 30 frames per second.
The smallest card you should buy is a 32GB.
Because 9 minutes of 4k30fps video takes 4GB of space according to PocketLint’s review.
So you can record a maximum of maybe 54 minutes of video. You will certainly be recording more than 54 minutes of video so be prepared to buy lots of cards.
The enthusiasts who shoot 4K video for work and for fun drive this market. They will create content and need to store it. It goes to PCs for editing, and then to USB 3.1 SSDs for storage externally.
They will use powerful processors, and external drives. External fast drives allows for the fast scaling/addition of more storage with no penalty because it’s external storage.
Fast External Storage – External as fast as Internal
Storage First, Connected to PCs – Enthusiasts who shoot and record lots of video will adopt USB 3.1 first.
They will add USB 3.1 Host Controller Cards to their Desktop PCs and buy external USB 3.0 and USB 3.1 SSDs for storage.
SSDs are clearly the way to go as Hard Drives or “spinning rust” is on the way out.
NAND Flash Speeds have continued to increase. Samsung and Toshiba SSDs that run at 10Gbps have been shipping for over a year in volume. These have dropped in price and continue to drop in price. These are PCIe based chips.
It will be easy to add a PCIe to USB 3.1 chip to convert these to USB 3.1 External Hard Drives.
The chips may initially cost $2-5, but they will drop to $2 pretty quick. Consumers will be able to pick up these faster SSDs using NAND flash chips for $200 or less to start with, depending on capacity. I’d guess 256 GB for sure, but likely 512GB by mid 2015. This is based on today’s Amazon price of $230 for a 512GB SSD from Crucial. If NAND flash is dropping in price at about 32% a year, this puts the retail price of this at about $160.
A product maker could take the PCIe version of this drive, add a $5 chip to it (and the casing and cables) and still make a great margin at $200.
And the product would be 100% backward and forward compatible.
For PCs, you’ll be able to buy an Add-In card for your PC. It will probably in the range of $90-150.
So Storage and the enthusiasts who need that storage will be the first adopters.
These are the enthusiasts that will drive the first USB 3.1 purchases.
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