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Estimates & Predictions: Smartphone Market share

Posted by Hezi Saar on August 16th, 2011

In my last blog post I covered Smartphone growth and referred to the inflection point in the Smartphone market where Nokia lost its #1 spot to Apple.
Moreover, Samsung took the #2 position showing 56% growth from last quarter (Q1 ’11) and leaving Nokia to the #3 spot.
Here’s more color on this topic illustrated in a graph based on information provided by IHS iSuppli (Aug, 2011). The graph shows market share estimates for the past quarters and also compares to Q2 of last year to show trends.

I noticed that the ‘others’ category is expanding from 10% last year to > 20% market share this year, this can be contributed to more success of smaller as well as local players that are able to innovate.
Take a look at Motorola at the #6 position with 7% growth from sequential quarter, as it will be interesting to see where the recent Google acquisition will take it in the quarters (and years) to come.
I think it is safe to assume that Google will grab market share in the long run but it won’t happen overnight. I don’t believe RIM will continue its decline much longer and it’s a matter of time until it turns it around and take more market share. M&A activity could shuffle the cards in this volatile market, with Microsoft on the sideline it will be (and it is) interesting to watch.

Let me know what your prediction is, as we will be visiting these numbers every quarter.


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2 Responses to “Estimates & Predictions: Smartphone Market share”

  1. Kurt Shuler says:

    Hezi, good observations. I’d like to add that Samsung has done really well, with more than 3x market share growth. They are targeting emerging markets now with reduced cost smart phones, so their growth could be even greater in the future.

    I agree that RIM will do well in the future. They have a stable installed based of corporate users that need their products and services. I think RIM was late to respond to the iPhone threat, failing to take into account that business users want to play games and watch videos, too. But RIM is in the middle of their transition to QNX and will be incorporating more powerful processors in their future phone lineup. Big question I have is, “Can RIM make available enough games and programs to get business people to choose their work phones as their only phone?”

    As usual, it’s all about the software ;-)

  2. Hezi Saar says:

    I like the software angle you’re taking. We recognize that it is really difficult to differentiate on hardware features and have a sustainable position. RIM is fairly in addressing the business market but if (or when) they go after the mainstream consumers they’ll need a platform that is on-par with competition and will be judged by the ‘soft’ features.